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科特勒说

川普当总统,炸弹或良药?--米尔顿·科特勒

这次美国总统竞选是有史以来最诡异和令人兴奋的一次!就在11月10日,美国多个州爆发了大规模的抗议,拒绝承认特朗普是当选总统。闹归闹,左右美国经济的财富阶层和知识精英是怎么看待特朗普当选的呢?米尔顿科特勒先生在第一时间表明了观点。作为科特勒咨询集团的创始人和世界知名营销专家,米尔顿科特勒先生曾在90年代早期受聘于美国民主党全国总部,进行一次关于美国选民心目中理想总统形象的研究项目。用现在流行的说法就是用客户画像的手法去描绘未来总统的形象,以便政党挑选总统候选人!结果,令人吃惊的是这个研究结果所描述的形象和最终若干年后当选总统的克林顿高度重合!这不是偶然,这揭示了总统选举的秘密! 每个历史时期的总统选举都代表了整个美国阶层的理想和恐惧。这次特朗普更是一个绝佳的证明! 科特勒先生是明显的挺特朗普一派,他在本文中总结了特朗普当选对政治,经济和国际政策的影响。科特勒先生最重要的判断是特朗普将将用商人特有的务实和智慧推动中美战略合作关系的升级,将以实在的生意价值和经济利益代替虚无的价值观和道德判断。中美之间将极大的强化共识的基础和丰富写作的内涵,中美将联合制定世界规则!无论科特勒先生的结论是否客观,我可以肯定的是我们将为越来越看到一个不同的美国国际政策。在这个格局下,中美企业的深度合作和高科技封闭的打破将成为推动中美全球战略新棋局的胜负手!作为全球战略咨询公司和全球创新资源整合者,科特勒咨询集团在过去的25年中,一直致力于把美国的高新技术和管理能力与中国的产业链能力和巨大市场需求结合,进而推动先进产能在中国的繁荣发展! 特朗普的当选和十八届六中全会带来的新政策必然形成合力,推动全球经济复苏和中美经济的再次繁荣。


I want to share with my China company staff, leadership, clients, friends and associates of Kotler Marketing China a few thoughts on the remarkable Trump victory in the U.S. election, and its impact on China. 

There are three faces of Trump’s Sino-U.S. relationship:

1.Business economy
2.Foreign policy
3.National security

Let’s look at each of these in order.

Business Economy


I was a very early supporter of Trump, principally because the U.S. needs a successful business man to pull the country together and push it forward for economic growth. That is what good business leaders do for their companies. This is what a great business leader can do for his or her country. We have been  for the past eight years under Obama; now we can move!

The two remarkable things about the Presidential election are first, his unpredicted victory; and second, the stock market reaction that dropped 700 points as he showed strength in the election evening; only to close up Wednesday +256 points. The market has continued to the rise for the past three days. We will see if it is a “growth” market by next week. All of the dire forecasts of financial collapse in the event of a Trump victory are proving wrong. The markets are remarkably flexible. They are buying his message of domestic economic growth – reducing  the high costs of regulation; halving the corporate tax from the highest  level in the world of 35 percent; repatriating overseas capital; and the likelihood of fast action on the Keystone pipeline and other infrastructure ready projects. These will be his first priorities because of their relative ease of handling and rapid job growth impact.  

While Trump has stressed a tough stand on trade during the campaign, it is likely that these matters will take some time for him to address. He does not want to unleash a trade war that would devastate U.S. Multinational companies and crash the stock market. Once he gets his house in order, he will move on trade. His first trade target will be revision of NAFTA, where he has geopolitical leverage to succeed. He is likely to wait with China trade until he finds a viable model of trade negotiation through the NAFTA exercise. 

He is not coming after China in the in the near term. But there are things that China could do to prepare for the inevitability of tough future negotiations; as well as near term positive opportunities for Chinese companies and investors in the U.S. market. If the small cap indexes break new highs, then it is time for Chinese companies to ramp up acquisitions of small cap U.S companies and increase equity positions in U.S. large companies. If Trump produces some near term growth, the dollar will rise and make Chinese acquisitions and investments more expensive in the future. 

The best early move for China is to reach out a friendly hand like Putin’s congratulation telegram. Show no fear on trade and get your negotiating team together for preparation. It will be a tough process; but there is leverage. After all, Trump has his anti-monopoly guns out for Bezos and Amazon. This could help Alibaba, if played right. Include top private Chinese business leaders, like Jack Ma of Alibaba, Robin Lee of Baidu, Wang Jianlin of Wanda, and Ma Huateng of Tencent in the China negotiating teams. Trump respects successful private business leaders. He is not a government guy when it comes to business.

Foreign Policy


With the end of the Bush Clinton and Obama dynasties, we can breathe a sigh of relief from wanton foreign engagements. Trump presented no foreign policy other than America First, military defeat of ISIS, and renegotiation of the Iran deal. He has put pressure on NATO to pay up. He has respected Putin as a strong national leader. He wants to get out of Middle East that bleeds our money and military resources. He is the first candidate since Eisenhower who has not pledged to Americanize the world. He will rebuild the military as a defensive and deterrent force. Both President Trump and President Xi Jinping are Nationalists, not Interventionists. They see eye to eye on their countries first. National growth is not a zero sum game. They can make a deal.   

Trump’s only remarks about China concern business, not war. He has expressed no alarm about the new islands in the South China Sea and received congratulations from Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte, who is making his own rapprochement with China, and discrediting our Anti-China foreign policy establishment position that China is threatening all of its neighbors.

Trump wants South Korea and Japan to pay for our military aid and has put the kibosh of the TPP and its foreign policy tilt toward Asia. His foreign policy so far is a closed book which he will open when he appoints his Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense. He is likely to pursue a policy of hard-headed realism instead of interventionism. It will be a pleasure for me living in Washington to see this town clean its Augean stables of anachronistic Anti-China war hawks and universal human rights warriors. 

National Security


There are two prongs of national security: illegal immigration and cyber security. Trump will build a wall of some sort. The people have spoken and do not want the country flooded with refugees, bad guys and good guys.

The only refugees we will welcome are highly vetted persons and families that respect our culture and respect our borders. Trump will to encourage residence in the U.S. of Chinese students, techies, scientists and business people, all of whom add value to the U.S. economy and its entrepreneurial culture, instead of drain our social welfare and national security resources.  

Both the U.S. and China share security threats from parts of the Muslim world, so there will be cooperation on this front. Cyber security will be a continuing problem because its new technology has become an integral part of necessary national intelligence. Both sides will steadily monitor this information incursion and work out its abuses, without war.  

In short, there are good reasons for the Chinese people to applaud Trump’s victory. More will follow as matters develop.

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